LUBBOCK, TX – Texas A&M AgriLife Extension cotton marketing economist Dr. John Robinson says next year’s cotton market will depend heavily on acreage decisions shaped by relative crop prices. His analysis points to the corn-to-cotton price ratio as a key driver, with higher ratios generally reducing cotton planting.
As of early August, December 2026 corn futures were trading near $4.50 while December 2026 cotton stood around 69 cents per pound. That ratio of 6.5 suggests U.S. growers could plant between 10 and 10.5 million acres of cotton. Using historical averages for abandonment and yield, Robinson projects a crop of roughly 14.3 million bales in 2026, combined with carry-in supplies to total 17.9 million bales. With expected use at 14.2 million bales, ending stocks would remain near 4 million bales — a neutral outcome for prices.
Robinson cautions that weather and market shifts could alter the outlook. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center indicates equal chances of ENSO-neutral or La Niña conditions this winter, the latter bringing more dryness and potentially higher abandonment. He also notes that survey data — beginning with the Beltwide Conference in January and continuing with USDA reports through June — will replace price-ratio projections as the primary acreage indicators.