GREETINGS … BELOW IS YOUR EARLY MORNING MARKET NEWS
OVER NIGHT GRAIN TRADE
Coming out of Tuesday s Reality and Settlement holiday, ICE canola futures continue to trend lower … currently down another $ 4/ tonne … now at their cheapest degrees considering that late March.
Chicago soybean futures also continue to compromise, down primarily 5 cents today … screening listed below $ 10 00/ bu on the front month Nov contract (6 -week reduced) and coming close to the lower end of a reputable sideways trading array.
CBOT corn futures are losing 2 to 3 cents today … striking a four-week reduced and going down listed below its 20 -, 50 – and 100 -day relocating standards today.
US wheat markets are also weaker today … wintertime wheats down 4 to 6 cents, while springtime wheat futures are 1 to 2 cents reduced. These are fresh agreement lows throughout.
A mostly bearish USDA quarterly United States grain stocks report on Tuesday supplied a body strike to United States grain futures markets, inflicting fresh technological damage that recommends more drawback rate pressure in the close to term. Tuesday’s United States September 1 stocks quotes were bearish for corn and wheat, neutral for soybeans.
The United States federal government shutdown that began overnight adds some added risk aversion to the general industry keeping speculative grain bulls in check.
In Other News
— United States government closure starts … A twelve o’clock at night US federal government financing target date passed without any arrangement among Congress participants, setting off the government’s initial closure in virtually seven years and shuttering the American federal government, aside from essential duties. The shutdown might be prolonged due to a delay over healthcare subsidies, with the White House’s budget workplace purchasing firms to begin executing their prepare for a financing lapse. The shutdown would disrupt the tasks of hundreds of thousands of Americans, upend several civil services and could have economic impacts, consisting of a potential spike in the joblessness price and delays in vital economic information, including this Friday s US Labor Department employment circumstance record for September.
There was no clear path out of the impasse, while companies advised that the 15 th federal government shutdown considering that 1981 would halt the launch of a closely seen September employment report, slow flight, suspend clinical research, withhold pay from US soldiers and result in the furlough of 750, 000 government employees at a daily expense of $ 400 million.
On the ag front … the closure implies USDA will certainly not be dealing with moving US tariff bucks to chop farmers, delaying any financial aid package. US farmers will have to offer their recently gathered plants to elevate income for November rental fees and prepay for 2026 seed, fertilizer, and chemicals.
— USDA quarterly grain supplies report … The USDA on Tuesday projected United States corn and soybean ending supplies at the end of the last advertising and marketing year (Aug 31 were below a year earlier.
US corn was reported at 1 532 billion bu, above pre-report assumptions after a moderate upward modification to the 2024 plant and with slower 4th quarter usage, however still 13 % under this moment in 2014. 2024 United States corn production was changed to 14 892 billion bu, 25 million more than the previous quote, with planted and collected area additionally greater than originally reported, while the average return held steady at 179 3 bu/acre.
Extra old plant carryin supply of corn right into what s going to be a record supply for the new plant advertising year for corn will certainly remain to weigh on costs. While new crop exports have started the 2025 – 26 strong, there s much less corn being utilized for animals feed. Not just does the United States have less livestock their feeding … both from a reducing United States supply and no cattle coming north from Mexico to be fed … they are additionally seeing rate pressure in the feed bunk with grain sorghum and wheat. The larger United States wheat plant will just heighten that.
US soybean stocks of 316 5 million bu were 8 % under a year back, likewise seeing a modest increase for the 2024 crop, however with improved fourth quarter need. US soybean manufacturing in 2024 was raised 7 74 million bu to 4 374 billion, with moderate changes to grown and collected area and no change to the return figure of 50 7 bu/acre.
September 1 st US wheat supplies were pegged at 2 12 billion bu, 6 % more than in 2014, and the highest to finish the initial quarter of the US wheat advertising year in 5 years. Excellent need numbers were negated by a larger crop in 2024 than 2023 The USDA sees the 2025 US wheat crop at 1 985 billion bu, much less than 1 % bigger than 2024
— Canola oil transloading center opens up … Canada has a brand-new way of getting canola oil to markets worldwide. DP World in Canada just recently opened its $ 150 million canola oil transload facility at its Fraser Surrey incurable at the Port of Vancouver. The facility is capable of exporting 1 MMT of canola oil per year. DP World is a worldwide logistics company operating 560 offices in greater than 70 nations around the world. The business runs five terminals at ports in Canada, with 4 of them situated on the West Coastline and the other in Saint John, N.B.
DP World partnered with Richardson International for the most up to date project. DP Globe developed the transload facility, and Richardson has dedicated to making use of 2 of the three 15, 000 tonne storage tanks. Richardson has initially rights on the third tank also, however if it doesn t require it, DP World will certainly locate another crusher with which to function.
— Plant specialist Cordonnier states early corn yields frustrating … Kept in mind United States crop expert Dr. Michael Cordonnier stated in his regular report that very early US corn returns are normally unsatisfactory, which could be a sign that southerly rust has caused more problems than originally expected. The disease moved into the US Midwest in July when warm and damp problems were favorable for rust growth. The illness most likely captured a great deal of individuals by surprise and also farmers who splashed for the condition are reporting disappointing yields.
Cordonnier s US corn return was left unchanged today at 182.0 bu/acre, with a neutral to reduced prejudice. I was favoring decreasing the corn return this week but chose to wait for even more corn yields to be reported.
Cordonnier also left his United States soybean return the same today at 52.0 bu/acre, with a neutral to reduced predisposition. For the soybean plant, the drier conditions in the eastern and southerly areas are a concern, specifically now with warmer temperatures. These problems need to require the soybeans to develop rapidly and might lead to smaller sized and lighter seeds than initially prepared for.
— Russian wheat export prices increase … Russian wheat export rates rose for a second week straight, reacting to raised demand from importers while deliveries increased. The rate for Russian wheat with 12 5 % protein content for free-on-board (FOB) distribution in November was United States $ 230/ tonne at the end of recently, up $ 2 from the previous week, said the IKAR consultancy. Rates were supported by a series of global tenders.
The SovEcon consultancy estimated the rate for Russian wheat with 12 5 % healthy protein content at $ 230 -$ 232/ t FOB, compared with $ 228 -$ 229 at the end of the previous week. SovEcon made its initial downgrade to its wheat export projection for the 2025/ 26 exporting season on Friday, cutting its projection by concerning 0. 3 MMT to 43 4 MMT after July-September exports reduced by 29 %.
Russia’s federal government has actually chosen to proclaim a federal degree emergency situation in the Rostov wheat area after poor weather created enormous crop losses, neighborhood authorities said on Saturday.
— Brazil’s competitors authority permits soy postponement to continue pending year-end decision … Brazil’s competition guard dog voted on Tuesday to allow the nation’s soy halt to proceed at the very least with completion of the year. The 5 – 1 ballot by CADE noted a turnaround after the antitrust company’s reporting councillor for the situation voted against an appeal submitted by soybean investors and processors. The two-decade-old exclusive pact seeks to safeguard the Amazon rain forest by preventing soybean investors from purchasing from farmers that removed land there after July 2008 However, it stands for a potential violation of Brazilian regulation by minimizing competitors.
— India s solid monsoon period increases plant leads … India has seen its strongest gale in 5 years, raising leads for plants such as rice and pulses, and raising hopes that food prices might reduce additionally, according to a Bloomberg report. Rain from June to September, which waters about half of the country s farmland and is essential for the following planting period was 8 % greater than the long-lasting standard and the very best stormy season considering that 2020, according to data compiled by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
India is anticipated to additionally obtain above-average rains in October, following above-normal precipitation in September. The nation is likely to get above-average rains corresponding to greater than 115 % of the 50 -year standard in October, according to the IMD.
— Argentina’s corn production to rise in 2025/ 26 … Argentina’s 2025/ 26 corn crop is anticipated to get to 58 MMT, surpassing the 49 MMT created in 2024/ 25, the Buenos Aires grains exchange stated on Tuesday. Soybean result in the 2025/ 26 season was estimated at 48 5 MMT, the exchange added, a drop from the 50 3 MMT created the previous period.
Outdoors Markets
The Dow Jones Industrial Average got 81 82 factors on Tuesday to work out at 46, 397 89, while the S&P 500 was up 27 25 factors at 6, 688 46 Very early Wednesday, the December Dow Jones Futures are down 126 factors.
Wall Road futures are weak today, while European stock exchange are slightly higher and Asian markets mixed as investors examine a United States government closure that was readied to delay the launch of essential US work information. Canada s TSX supply index futures were down.
United States federal government operations closed down at twelve o’clock at night after Congress and the White House stopped working to reach a financing deal.
United States stock index futures wobbled on the news, but experts state the shutdown may not be excessively impactful on markets, aside from the blackout in federal data that could leave capitalists at night concerning the state of the US economic situation and by extension, the Federal Get s rate of interest course.
The December United States Dollar Index is down 0. 196 at 97 255 The Canadian buck deteriorated versus its US counterpart … presently priced quote at 71 86 US cents.
Nov petroleum futures are down $0. 53 at US $ 61 84/ barrel. Oil costs were weaker as financiers evaluated potential OPEC+ plans for a larger output hike following month versus the prospect of shrinking inventories in the United States.
After publishing a string of gains recently, crude oil has actually backtracked lower today until now … set off by records of OPEC+ hike and the resumption of Kurdish oil export. But underlying support is drawn from the supply and export disruption in Russia as a result of constant and successful Ukrainian attacks.
On The Other Hand the Macquarie Group is anticipating petroleum costs could drop right into the $ 50 s a barrel variety in the coming quarters on assumptions for penalizing oversupply as output expands. Macquarie analysts remain fundamentally bearish the power complicated as a result of crude supply growth from OPEC-plus and drillers outside the group, as reported by Bloomberg. An international crude surplus is predicted, with Macquarie anticipating a surplus of 4 63 million barrels a day in the initial quarter of next year, adhered to by smaller sized excess in each of the following 3 quarters.
Last month, the International Energy Company forecasted that globe outcome would go beyond usage by approximately 3 33 million barrels a day in 2026 That would be a historical overhang in annual terms.
Grain Markets
Chicago soybean futures are trading 5 cents/bu lower today … currently at a 6 -week low. Bean futures closed 8 to 9 cents lower on Tuesday regardless of a somewhat tighter than expected United States soybean supplies amount to from USDA yesterday. Nov soybeans are down 5 5 cents at $ 9 96/ bu.
Soymeal futures are down primarily $ 2 to $ 3/ heap this morning after losing $ 1 to $ 2/ load the other day. Soyoil futures are up 17 to 28 points today after sliding down 20 to 33 factors the other day.
On Tuesday, USDA tallied 316 million bu of US soybeans available since September 1 by means of their grain supplies report … the initial unofficial quote for 2024/ 25 finishing supplies. That was 9 million bu reluctant of the average trade guess of 325 million bu, in addition to 14 million bu reduced contrasted to the USDA ending stocks estimate from previously this month. That was likewise a 26 million bu decrease from in 2015.
Traders continue to be concerned about US soy export sales in this young marketing year. Tuesday night, Republican legislators said that China will not begin acquiring United States agricultural items anytime soon, according to a closed-door instruction from David Perdue, the United States ambassador to China, as reported by Bloomberg.
Chicago corn futures are mostly 2 to 3 cents/bu lower today … a 4 -week reduced. The corn market fell 6 to 7 cents across the majority of agreements on Tuesday, as USDA found a couple (hundred million) much more bushels than the trade had anticipated in the quarterly grain stocks report.
Basically, the corn market have to manage heavy US harvest task and bigger stocks than expected. In the meantime, the trade is anticipating a document 2025 United States corn crop and climbing production for Argentina and Brazil.
Yesterday s United States grain supplies record showed September 1 overall US corn supplies at 1 532 billion bu. That was well above the average profession assumption of 1 336 billion, yet still 231 million bu listed below in 2015.
United States wheat markets are additionally weak today … Minnie spring wheat futures are 1 to 2 cents lower, HRW down 6 cents and SRW wheat losing 4 to 5 cents … publishing fresh agreement lows throughout. The US wheat complicated dropped across all 3 markets on Tuesday, as USDA discovered a few more bushels through the United States production number on Tuesday early morning. Springtime wheat futures published 6 to 7 cent losses the other day.
The USDA Small Grains Summary from Tuesday showed all of us wheat production tallied at 1 984 billion bu, 63 million bu larger contrasted to the ordinary trade guess and 57 million over the August USDA plant production record number. United States springtime wheat production was secured at 497 million bu, with durum at 86 million bu.
USDA s grain stocks report shown US wheat stocks at 2 12 billion bu since September 1 … 66 million bu above Bloomberg s average survey of analysts at 2 054 billion bu and 128 million bu larger than the same day in 2024
Weather condition looks mainly favorable for US winter season wheat growing, however some soft red winter season locations do need rainfall prior to the crop heads right into dormancy this winter season. Task in some United States tough red winter season areas has actually been pressed back by rain. Investors are likewise keeping an eye on advancement conditions in Argentina and Australia, along with planting weather condition in Black Sea nearby portions of Russia and Ukraine.
CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET
ICE canola futures experienced strong losses on Monday as the marketplace births the force of recurring harvest stress. Canola market was shut Tuesday.
Other than a handful of locations which saw reasonably light quantities, the majority of Western Canada was completely dry over the weekend, enabling good harvest progression. Mostly dry weather condition is expected for the majority of this week and into very early next week also for some areas.
In updated regular monthly supply/demand approximates released late Friday mid-day, Ag Canada fixed 2025 – 26 canola ending supplies at a moderately challenging 2 5 MMT. That is up 300, 000 tonnes from the August quote and about 900, 000 more than a year previously.
November canola fell $ 9 40 on Monday to $ 605 20/ tonne, and January lost $ 9 50 to $ 618 20
For today … canola futures continue to trend lower today, losing one more $ 4/ tonne right now in a press to the most affordable degrees considering that late March. Nov canola is down $ 4 70 at $ 600 50/ tonne, intimidating to drop listed below psychological graph support at $ 600 The summer drop line on price charts continue to be active.
Anecdotal reporting suggests strong total yield leads as the Savanna canola harvest proceeds … though not in all areas.
CBOT soyoil futures are a little higher this morning, but the fad considering that the July highs continues to be necessarily lower … presently struggling to keep support at the technically critical 50 cent/lbs level. Soybeans are down this morning at 6 -week lows.
European rapeseed are lower this morning, checking the low end of its recent array. Malaysian palm oil is a little higher on issues over reduced production ahead, however the trend has been leaning progressively reduced given that coming to a head in mid-August.
To access the current futures prices, go to https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/
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